Scenario analysis

A scenario gives a description of how events may unfold in the future. Scenario development often starts with a narrative storyline, which describes the changes that will occur as well as the consequences of those changes. Such a storyline is known as a qualitative scenario, since there is no mention of exact numbers. By assigning numbers to the qualitative statements of a scenario, we develop a quantitative scenario. This can be simulated in Metronamica to investigate the effects of the described events.

RIKS has experience with the development of scenarios in collaboration with stakeholder groups. Using Metronamica we can supplement qualitative scenarios —storylines— with a quantitative foundation. This not only gives spatial images of the scenario, but also brings up unforeseen conflicts and strengthens the internal consistency of the scenario. If you are interested in RIKS' services for scenario development and analysis, please contact us.


You can find examples of the scenario studies RIKS has carried out using Metronamica on the RIKS projects page. Particularly relevant are the PRELUDE and Green Infrastructure projects. To see how scenarios can be entered in Metronamica have a look at the example where a road is constructed or where a green belt is developed around a city.